There is an ongoing uprising in Indian administered Kashmir and an impending conflict between nuclear Pakistan and India. Just before the nukes start firing will the otherwise impotent UN sort out Indian Prime minister Modi’s Kashmir dilemma thus providing him a bit of a face saving infront of his Ultra-right wing voter base?
India on the 5th of August 2019 revoked article 370 in effect annexing Indian administered Kashmir to main land India, abrogating the laws that protected the demographic of the disputed region of Indian occupied Kashmir. Subsequently Pakistan approached the United nations security council to take notice of the Indian step in unilaterally changing the status of Kashmir undermining Shimla agreement
Modi’s gambit is in fact his cry for help to the international community to resolve the Kashmir issue, so he can wash his hands off it, and at the same time satisfy his right-wing Hindu voter’s mandate by fulfilling BJPs election manifesto. There was no doubt in Modi’s mind that Indian Occupied Kashmir will need to be addressed according to the wishes of the Muslim populace resident there, however by even hinting that he is willing to participate in resolving the Kashmir issue let alone admitting US’s help would have cost him a lot more than the Hindu Ultra-right vote bank. Modi in fact had little choice in the matter even before revoking article 370, this was indeed an act of desperation. What Modi is telling those who can read between the lines and hopefully most statesmen of some acumen; is that look, I am not willing to talk about Kashmir, so I will just annex the place and if Kashmiri reaction is not as worse as thought then the gamble pays out, although this had a very low probability nearing impossible to begin with, as we are witnessing now.
For this to play out according to the playbook the UNSC has got to parrot the same lines it has been taught, the same lines the UNSC members keep incessantly repeating without even feeling guilty about looking stupid.
On Friday the 16th of August the UNSC via the 5 permanent members will again mindlessly repeat the line “Solve this issue bilaterally and under Shimla agreement and UN charter” knowing full well that one of the parties (India) is not willing to discuss the issue bilaterally or as Shimla agreement suggests “by any other peaceful means” which can include third party mediation or whatever “other peaceful means” your imagination can take fancy of. Bilaterally and by other peaceful means doesn’t exclude third party mediation, another spin that India gives to this particular clause in the Shimla agreement focusing on bilateral and ignoring the next phrase of “other peaceful means”. Despite this what is the UN to do to resolve this issue if the other party to the conflict is not willing to talk to resolve it? Keep parroting “bilaterally” hence excusing themselves of any material action against Indian aggression on Kashmiri people will no longer suffice. What in fact UNSC is telling Pakistan and Indian occupied Kashmiris to – shut up and accept the situation as is, we can do jack all right now, else double down and essentially go to war we will then see how serious you are about Kashmir, at this point we the UNSC will probably jump in and finally provide a solution for Kashmir (freedom from occupation by India) – hence providing the face saving to Modi I had mentioned earlier.
The reference to UN charter by the organisation’s secretary general vis-a-vis the recent illegal actions by India in Kashmir is really referencing a little pretty pocket book for children. This children’s story book feels good when read, gives us confidence but then we step into the real world and approach the UN, here we confront Darwin’s jungle, here the might is right, national interest prevails at the expense of harm to the weak in the world, albeit wrapped up in the niceties of consoling human language, elaborate verbiage promising a Hollywood ending.
I am inclined to take just a snippet of the UN charter that the UN secretary general referenced in connection to Indian lock down in the Indian occupied Kashmir and see what it stands for, yes let’s just start from Article 1.
Article 1 
The Purposes of the United Nations are:
1 – To maintain international peace and security, and to that end: to take effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to the peace, and for the suppression of acts of aggression or other breaches of the peace, and to bring about by peaceful means, and in conformity with the principles of justice and international law, adjustment or settlement of international disputes or situations which might lead to a breach of the peace;
Verdict: Major FAIL. Evidence in point, lingering issue of Kashmir and Palestine, impacting millions of Muslims causing death and destruction at a sustained, systematic and large scale.
2 – To develop friendly relations among nations based on respect for the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples, and to take other appropriate measures to strengthen universal peace;
Verdict: FAIL, case in point Human right abuses in Indian Occupied Kashmir since 1948, self-determination denied by Indian occupation forces since 1948. The UN has been nothing more but a spectator. Failing to settle international disputes where the interest of major powers (aka Security Council permanent members are threatened at the expense of Human rights and freedoms.
3 – To achieve international co-operation in solving international problems of an economic, social, cultural, or humanitarian character, and in promoting and encouraging respect for human rights and for fundamental freedoms for all without distinction as to race, sex, language, or religion; and
Verdict: Major FAIL. UN has nothing but been partial to the right of self-determination of non-Muslim territories, case in point East Timor and South Sudan. The organisation has celebrity ambassadors that condone violence and promote war.
4 – To be a centre for harmonizing the actions of nations in the attainment of these common ends.
Verdict: I hope you see the trend here and wanting to keep the reading time minimal I endeavour to stop with this fantastical charter of the UN and its irrelevance in the real world.
The practise of these articles in reality though as we see is quite different from what the UN would like us to believe. What in fact the UN telling the victim is, listen we can’t do what you ask us to because the aggressor country whom you are a victim of has trade volume in billions of dollars with UNSC members, the aggressor here is a big market for these UNSC members , do you the victim have the ability to replace that revenue stream? can you give us access to such a market? can you buy the overpriced under performing weaponry in train loads? if you can we are all on your side, otherwise, sorry resolve this issue bilaterally because there is no oil to be found under your rock.
We like to think we are now living in an age of reason, it’ll be a folly to think such, reason is the first thing out of the window where economic interest and national greed reign, that is most of the capitalist world today, but then perhaps even that is reasonable in a jungle where rational self-interest is the yardstick of survival.
What is more realistic than the UN’s lala land to have Aladdin steal the lamp from the 40 thieves and wish a robin hood to take care of business that is to get rid of tyranny of BJP led Indian occupation causing plight and impending ethnic cleansing of Kashmiris. Maybe Robin hood can return to the people what is their’s because the UN has failed them miserably for decades.